This comparative study showed that:
• The numbers of people displaced in 2017 exceeds the total number displaced in the 2011 crisis by nearly 60%.
• Displaced Somalis are remaining in Somalia, by choice…or by lack of choice?
• Displacement patterns are highly localized - and majority of displacement comes from only a few districts.
• Will there be significant additional displacement from Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba this year?
The 2016 – 2017 drought situation in Somalia has been reminiscent of the conditions preceding the 2010 – 2011 famine crisis. In that period lack of rainfall, failed harvests, political conflict and poor accountability of the government to the population all led to severe food insecurity. It is estimated that the deaths of between 242,300 and 272,690 people were directly attributable to the resulting famine in 2011 (Checchi and Robinson 2013). As a result the humanitarian community has acted with speed in 2016 to prevent a repeat event of this scale.
There is currently little substantive data to assess trends in crude mortality in Somalia throughout 2017. However, sources suggest that mortality has not increased at the same rate as in 2011. In contrast, the current figures indicate a greater number and percentage of the population have been displaced by the current drought than in 2011. If the severity of crises were to be measured by total displacement, the current crisis would appear more severe.
In this report we explore four discussion points that we believe are notable for practitioners and policy makers that are seeking to learn from the nature of this current crisis and response.